January 2019 Chemical Activity Barometer

For the past 25 years I have followed the ups and downs of the U.S. chemical industry, first as VP of Government affairs for BASF Corporation and then as a private government affairs consultant. As you can see in the graph below, the American Chemistry Council’s annual Chemical Activity Barometer is a leading indicator of how the U.S. economy was, is and will do in the future. Looking back at the 2008-09 data clearly shows the Barometer’s accuracy.

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January 2019 Chemical Activity Barometer

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), posted a 0.3 percent decline in January on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This marks the barometer’s third consecutive month-over-month drop and suggests a slower rate of U.S. economic growth. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer is up 0.8 percent (3MMA), a pronounced slowdown in the pace of growth as compared with late last year.

The unadjusted measure of the CAB was flat (0.0 percent) in January and declined 0.2 percent in December and 0.8 percent in November.

Major components of the barometer were mixed in January. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were mixed, suggesting slow housing activity. Plastic resins used in packaging and in consumer and institutional applications turned positive, performance chemistry gained, and U.S. exports were mixed. Equity prices retreated sharply again this month, and product and input prices fell as well. Inventory indicators were positive.

The diffusion index was stable at 53 percent. This index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored.

Read the full release.

Download the CAB and its historic data.

Source: American Chemistry Council