Is Colorado the Canary in the Coal Mine?

Independent, Unaffiliated Voters Send a Message

A post election survey by Magellan Strategies, a Colorado based Republican campaign consultancy, has some significant findings that may be a harbinger of future national elections. Unaffiliated voters, meaning they are not registered as Democrats or Republicans on Colorado voter rolls, voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates. The poll also indicates voters are unhappy with having only two choices when comes to electing their public officials.

The firm called the survey results “extraordinary because in the past 20 years never has one political party been so overwhelmingly rejected at every level of representative government by the electorate. It was extraordinary because unaffiliated voters, the largest and fastest growing affiliation in our state, participated in a mid-term election at a level that has never happened to before.” The firm warned there is an abundance of survey data and voter trends in the survey that should worry all Colorado Republicans.

Here are some key findings and voter data observations from the survey:

• For the first time ever in a Colorado mid-term election, unaffiliated voter turnout (893,436) and Democratic voter turnout (822,230) was higher than Republican turnout (803,143), and by a significant margin;

• Unaffiliated female voters were much more polarized and less willing to consider candidates of both parties in 2018 compared to 2016. In 2016 36% considered candidates of both parties equally compared to only 15% this election cycle;

• The Democrat Party has a net positive image rating among unaffiliated voters, with 45% having a favorable opinion of the party and 31% an unfavorable opinion. The Republican Party has a net negative image rating, with only 25% of respondents having a favorable opinion of the party and 53% having an unfavorable opinion.

• Many, but not all, unaffiliated voters in Colorado choose to be unaffiliated because they simply are not comfortable being a Democrat or a Republican. They are more likely to see negatives rather than positives in both of the two major parties.

• Donald Trump’s job approval rating among unaffiliated voters who voted in the 2018 election can only be described as toxic. Among all respondents, only 31% approve of the job he is doing, 62% disapprove of the job he is doing and 48% strongly disapprove. Based on this survey data, it is quite clear that any association with Donald Trump and his policies harmed Republican candidates in most parts of Colorado.

The survey results are instructive as to how unaffiliated and Independent voters view the two major parties.

What Unaffiliated Voters Like or Dislike About the Republican Party
Respondents were asked an open-ended question if there was anything they liked or disliked about the Republican Party. The most common positive responses were fiscal issues such as the economy, jobs, lowering taxes, and smaller government. The negative responses covered a wider range of issues and emotions, such as “promoting hate speech,” being hostile toward immigrants, coming off as racist, and only caring about rich people and not the working class. Other negative comments touched upon the party being hostile towards women’s issues, and not standing up to Donald Trump when he is over the line in his rhetoric.

What Unaffiliated Voters Like or Dislike About the Democrat Party
What unaffiliated voters like about the Democrat Party is their support for affordable healthcare, public education, economic fairness, fighting income inequality and being “socially conscious” on issues like the environment. The common theme in the positive comments is that Democrats promote policies that “help people.” Reasons unaffiliated voters dislike the Democrat Party is the view that their policies are too reliant on higher taxes, bigger government and welfare programs. They feel they go too far in certain policies resulting in an impression they are trying to “control” society. Other comments include being too supportive of gun control and being too open to “socialist” policies.

Unaffiliated Voters Show Change in Viewpoint of Government’s Role
A majority of unaffiliated voters, 51%, say they want the government to do more to solve the country’s problems and 34% think the government is doing too much. This is a significant change of opinion compared to unaffiliated voters who voted in the 2016 election, where 61% thought the government was doing too much and only 26% thought the government should do more.

___

Source: 2018 Post-Election Survey of Colorado’s Unaffiliated Voters (Magellan Strategies)

Image Credit: Animalia Life Club